TrendPilot · ETF Trend Trading Systems

Author: ETF Trend Trading

  • Short-Term ETF Trade vs Cash Break-Even Calculator

    This free calculator estimates whether a short-term ETF trade covers its own costs and beats the alternative of simply holding cash. Enter your trade, its costs, and a cash comparison, and it shows your net result and the break-even price. It uses only the numbers you type in.

    Step 1 of 3

    Trade setup

    The result uses your expected exit price. It is an estimate, not a prediction.

    Trading and ETF costs

    Total spread impact for entering and exiting.
    Prorated for your holding period.

    Compare with cash

    What you could earn holding cash instead.
    Applied only to a positive taxable result.
    Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction and account type. This is a simplified estimate.

    How to use it

    Enter your starting amount, entry and expected exit price, and holding dates. Then add your trading costs and fund expense ratio, and finally the cash return you could earn by doing nothing. The calculator shows your net profit or loss, the break-even exit price, and whether the trade beats cash. For the strategy behind the trade, see our ETF swing trading strategies guide.

    FAQ

    What does the break-even price tell me?

    The break-even exit price is the price you need to reach so that your proceeds cover your entry cost plus the buy fee, sell fee, spread, and the prorated fund expense. It is a pre-tax number, so taxes are handled separately in the comparison.

    What is the cash alternative?

    The cash alternative is the estimate of what the same money would grow to if held in cash or a cash-based ETF at the annual return you enter, over the same holding period.

    Is the result a prediction?

    No. It is an estimate built entirely from the prices and assumptions you enter. Actual execution prices, spreads, fees, and tax treatment can all differ.

    Disclaimer: This calculator provides an estimate based on the assumptions entered. Actual execution prices, spreads, fees, distributions, market movements, and tax treatment may differ. It is not personal financial or tax advice. Full disclaimer and affiliate disclosure.

  • ETF Momentum Ranker: Rank Your Watchlist by Strength

    This free tool ranks your ETFs by momentum, so you can see which ones have been strongest over a window you choose. Enter two prices per ETF (the price some months ago and the price now), and it sorts them from strongest to weakest. It uses only the numbers you type in.

    Step 1 of 3

    What momentum window do you want to measure?

    How many ETFs do you want to rank?

    Enter each ETF’s price

    How to use it

    Pick a lookback window (3, 6, or 12 months), choose how many ETFs to compare, then enter each ETF’s ticker, its price at the start of the window, and its price today. The tool ranks them by percentage change. You can read both prices off any chart, so no data export is needed.

    Momentum ranking is the same idea behind relative strength and our step-by-step ETF momentum strategy guide. To see how a trend rule held up over a full price history, use the backtest calculator.

    FAQ

    How is momentum calculated here?

    Momentum is the percentage change from the price you enter for N months ago to the price you enter for today. A positive number means the ETF rose; a negative number means it fell. The ETFs are then ranked highest to lowest.

    What price data do I need?

    Just two numbers per ETF: the price at the start of your chosen window and the price now. You can read both off any chart. The tool does not fetch or invent any market data.

    Does a high rank predict future returns?

    No. Momentum is a screen that shows what has been strong recently, not a promise about what comes next. Rankings change, and past strength does not guarantee future returns.

    Disclaimer: Educational tool only, not financial advice. It ranks the numbers you enter; it does not predict future performance or recommend any trade. Full disclaimer and affiliate disclosure.

  • Trend-Following ETF Backtest Calculator: Test a Moving-Average Rule

    This free calculator tests whether a simple moving-average trend rule improved an ETF’s historical risk-adjusted performance. You paste your own price data, and it replays the rule with no lookahead bias, comparing the trend strategy against buy-and-hold. It does not fetch or invent any market data.

    1Enter ETF price data

    Paste two columns: date and close. Accepts headers like date, time, close, adj close. Order does not matter; blank lines are ignored.

    2Configure the strategy

    A transaction cost is applied every time the strategy switches between invested and cash.

    3Optional benchmark

    How to use it

    Download or copy daily closing prices for any ETF (Yahoo Finance and most brokers export a CSV), paste the date and close columns into step 1, set your lookback period (200 is the classic trend-following default), and run it. The calculator moves the strategy to cash whenever the price closes below its moving average, and back in when it closes above, applying your transaction cost on each switch.

    To understand what the numbers mean before trusting them, read how to backtest without fooling yourself, and pair the result with our other free tools.

    FAQ

    How does this backtest avoid lookahead bias?

    The moving average at each period uses only prior closing prices, and the signal sets the position for the NEXT period. So no future information leaks into the trading decision.

    What data do I need to run it?

    A CSV with two columns: date and close price, pasted from any source such as Yahoo Finance or your broker. The calculator does not fetch or invent any market data.

    Does it predict future returns?

    No. It replays a rule on the prices you supply. Historical backtests are hypothetical and do not predict future performance.

    Disclaimer: Educational tool only, not financial advice. It performs arithmetic on data you supply; it does not predict future performance or recommend any trade. Full disclaimer and affiliate disclosure.

  • Managed Futures ETFs: Trend Following Across Futures

    Managed futures ETFs give ordinary investors access to a systematic trend-following strategy that trades futures across commodities, currencies, and interest rates. They package what used to require a hedge fund into a single exchange-traded fund.

    What are managed futures ETFs?

    These funds run a rules-based trend-following model across futures markets. The idea is simple and old: when a market is trending, the model takes a position in the direction of the trend, long or short. Because futures can be shorted as easily as bought, the strategy can profit in falling markets too. That gives managed futures their main selling point: returns that are largely uncorrelated with the stock market.

    The main funds

    Fund Ticker Expense ratio Approach
    iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy DBMF 0.85% Replicates a broad CTA index
    KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures KMLM 0.90% Directly tracks a trend-following index
    Simplify Managed Futures Strategy CTA 0.76% Dynamic long/short across futures

    Expense ratios as of August 2026. Verify current fees before investing.

    How they differ from equity trend ETFs

    An equity trend ETF like PTLC follows one stock index and moves to cash when the trend breaks. A managed futures ETF trades many markets at once and can go short, so it is not just a stock strategy with a filter. That broader, long/short mandate is what produces the low correlation investors buy them for. See trend following ETFs for the equity side of the same idea.

    What to compare before you choose

    • Expense ratio. Managed futures ETFs run 0.76% to 0.90%, which is high by index-fund standards. It is the price of an actively run futures book.
    • Markets traded. Some track a broad basket of commodities, currencies and rates; others tilt toward certain markets. The mix shapes how the fund behaves.
    • Liquidity and size. Larger funds tend to have tighter spreads, which matters if you trade in and out.
    • Correlation. The whole point is diversification, so check how the fund has moved relative to the rest of your portfolio rather than chasing its recent return.

    What to expect

    Managed futures shine in sustained trends and can do well when stocks fall, but they grind sideways or lose money in choppy markets and lag strong bull markets. They are a satellite holding for diversification, not a core position. As with any trend strategy, the risks are real, and you should test honestly before trusting any rule.

    FAQ

    What is the best managed futures ETF?

    There is no single best. DBMF is the largest and most liquid, KMLM is the only one that directly tracks an index, and CTA has the lowest expense ratio of the three. The right pick depends on what you prioritize.

    What are managed futures ETFs?

    Managed futures ETFs are funds that run a systematic trend-following strategy across futures markets, such as commodities, currencies, and interest rates, and package it as an exchange-traded fund.

    Are managed futures a good investment?

    They are used mainly for diversification, because their returns have been largely uncorrelated with stocks. They can lag badly in strong bull markets and there is no guarantee they help in every downturn. Treat them as a satellite, not a core holding.

    Are there any futures ETFs?

    Yes. Managed futures ETFs such as DBMF, KMLM, CTA and MFUT hold futures contracts inside the fund, so you get futures-based trend following without opening a futures account.

    Disclaimer: Educational content only, not financial advice. Fund fees and details change; verify them on the issuer’s site before investing. Full disclaimer and affiliate disclosure.

  • Momentum ETFs: How They Work and the Top Funds

    Momentum ETFs are exchange-traded funds that buy stocks, or other assets, that have risen the most over a recent window on the theory that winners keep winning. They package the momentum factor into a single tradeable fund.

    What is a momentum ETF?

    A momentum ETF ranks a universe of stocks by recent performance and holds the strongest. Most use a 6- to 12-month lookback, often skipping the most recent month to avoid short-term reversal. The fund then rebalances on a schedule, selling the names that lost strength and buying the new leaders. This is a close cousin of trend following ETFs: momentum ranks assets against each other, while trend following applies an absolute filter to each one.

    High momentum ETF list

    Fund Ticker Expense ratio Universe
    iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor MTUM 0.15% US large and mid cap
    Invesco S&P 500 Momentum SPMO 0.13% S&P 500
    Vanguard US Momentum Factor VFMO 0.13% Broad US market
    Alpha Architect US Quantitative Momentum QMOM 0.49% Concentrated US
    iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor IMTM 0.30% Developed ex-US

    Expense ratios as of August 2026. Verify current fees before investing.

    How momentum is measured

    The standard measure is total return over the trailing 12 months, excluding the most recent month (often written as 12-1 momentum). The fund sorts everything by that score and holds the top slice. Because it rebalances regularly, a momentum ETF trades more than an index fund, which raises costs and tax drag.

    Momentum versus trend following

    The two are easy to confuse. Momentum is relative: it always holds something, and just rotates into the strongest names. Trend following is absolute: it holds an asset only if that asset is above its own trend line, and otherwise sits in cash or bonds. Many systems combine them: use momentum to pick what to hold, and a trend filter to decide whether to hold anything at all.

    Are momentum ETFs any good?

    Momentum has been one of the most persistent factors in markets, but persistence is not a promise. Momentum ETFs can lag the market for years, turn over frequently, and fall sharply in fast reversals. They make most sense as a modest slice of a portfolio, held for the long term. Before committing, see how trend and momentum compare to buy and hold.

    FAQ

    What are the best momentum ETFs?

    The largest and most liquid are MTUM (iShares MSCI USA Momentum) and SPMO (Invesco S&P 500 Momentum). Low-cost alternatives include VFMO (Vanguard) and IMTM (iShares international momentum).

    Are momentum ETFs any good?

    Momentum has been one of the most persistent factors in markets, but that is no guarantee. Momentum ETFs can lag for long stretches, turn over often, and tend to fall hard in sharp reversals. Treat them as one piece of a portfolio, not a core holding.

    What is a momentum ETF?

    A momentum ETF is an exchange-traded fund that holds stocks or other assets that have risen the most over a recent window, usually 6 to 12 months, on the theory that winners keep winning.

    What is Warren Buffett’s favorite ETF?

    Warren Buffett has not endorsed a momentum ETF. His repeated public recommendation is a low-cost S&P 500 index fund, and his estate instructions direct 90% into an S&P 500 index fund. That is a plain index fund, not a momentum strategy.

    Disclaimer: Educational content only, not financial advice. Fund fees and details change; verify them on the issuer’s site before investing. Full disclaimer and affiliate disclosure.

  • Trend Following ETFs: How They Work and What to Know

    Trend following ETFs are exchange-traded funds that use a rules-based trend rule, usually a moving average, to shift between a market and cash. The goal is to stay invested in uptrends and step aside in downtrends, without predicting what happens next.

    Is there a trend following ETF?

    Yes, and they come in two main flavors.

    • Equity trend ETFs. The Pacer Trendpilot family (PTLC, PTNQ, PTBD and others) holds a stock index when it is above its 200-day simple moving average, and shifts to Treasury bills when it falls below. PTLC, the US large-cap version, moves between 100% stocks, a 50/50 split, and 100% T-bills depending on how far the index is from its 200-day line.
    • Managed futures ETFs. Funds such as DBMF, KMLM and CTA follow trends across futures markets (commodities, currencies, rates) rather than a single stock index. They are built to be largely uncorrelated with equities.

    Trend following ETFs at a glance

    Fund Ticker Approach Expense ratio
    Pacer Trendpilot US Large Cap PTLC 200-day SMA on S&P 500 0.60%
    iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy DBMF Trend following across futures 0.85%
    KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures KMLM Index-based trend following 0.90%
    Simplify Managed Futures Strategy CTA Long/short trend across futures 0.76%

    Expense ratios as of August 2026. Verify current fees on the fund’s own page before investing.

    How the rules work

    The classic rule is simple. Each day you compare the fund’s index to its 200-day moving average. Above the line means the trend is up, so you stay invested. Below the line means the trend is down, so you move to cash or bonds. There is no forecasting, no news, and no discretion. See the fully documented 200-day rule example for the exact entry, exit, and rebalance rules.

    The trade-off is built in. A trend rule is always late. It gives back part of every move at the top and the bottom, and it whipsaws in choppy, range-bound markets. That is the cost of never having to guess. The risks guide covers each failure mode.

    Which ETFs are trending right now?

    Rather than chase a list that goes stale, find trending ETFs yourself with three checks: relative strength over 3 to 12 months (see momentum ETFs), a price above its 200-day moving average, and recent inflows or rising volume. The signal comparison guide shows how each filter works and what it catches.

    Where to buy, and what it costs

    These are US-listed ETFs, so you buy them through any broker that offers US markets (and through international brokers that access US exchanges). The costs are the fund’s expense ratio above, plus any commission or foreign-exchange fee your broker charges. A 0.60% to 0.90% fee is high for a buy-and-hold fund, so it only makes sense if you want the trend rule handled for you.

    Check the trend yourself, in two minutes

    You do not need a fund to see the rule in action. Open any free charting tool, pull up an ETF, and add a 200-day simple moving average. If price is above the line, the trend is up. If it is below, the trend is down. Watch what happens at each crossover: the signal fires after the turn has already started. That is the entire concept, and it is why the strategy is mechanical rather than clever.

    To test whether the rule actually helped a given ETF, use our free tools, and read how to backtest without fooling yourself before trusting any result.

    FAQ

    Is there a trend following ETF?

    Yes. The Pacer Trendpilot family (PTLC, PTNQ, PTBD and others) uses a 200-day moving-average rule to shift between a stock index and Treasury bills. Managed futures ETFs such as DBMF, KMLM and CTA follow trends across futures markets instead.

    Which ETFs are currently trending?

    That changes over time, so the useful answer is a method, not a list. Look for ETFs with strong momentum over 3 to 12 months, a price above its 200-day moving average, and recent inflows or rising volume. Free screeners can filter for all three.

    What ETFs are trending right now?

    The same approach applies at any moment: screen for recent relative strength and a price above a long-term moving average, then confirm the trend with volume. We walk through the signals in the comparison guide rather than naming funds that will soon be out of date.

    What is the 7% rule in ETF?

    The 7% rule is a stop-loss guideline popularized by trader William O’Neil: sell a position if it falls 7% to 8% below your purchase price. It is a risk-management rule that applies to ETFs the same way it applies to stocks.

    Disclaimer: Educational content only, not financial advice. Fund fees and details change; verify them on the issuer’s site before investing. Full disclaimer and affiliate disclosure.

  • ETF Trading Cost Calculator: What Turnover Really Costs

    Trading costs are invisible until you add them up, and in a high-turnover trend system they can quietly erase the edge. Commissions, spreads, and slippage compound with every trade. Enter your numbers to see the annual cost in dollars and as a percentage of your portfolio.

    Your turnover
    Annual trading cost
    $0
    Cost per trade$0
    Cost as % of portfolio0%
    Cost per trade = commission + (portfolio × spread %). Annual cost = cost per trade × trades per year. High-turnover systems bleed returns here.

    Why turnover is the hidden tax

    A system that trades monthly makes roughly two dozen round trips a year. If each round trip costs a fraction of a percent, the annual drag can reach several percent. That is why the signal you choose matters: a faster signal trades more and costs more. Prefer liquid ETFs with tight spreads, and keep turnover as low as your rules allow.

    FAQ

    What is spread and slippage?

    The spread is the difference between the bid and ask price. Slippage is the difference between the price you expected and the price you actually got. Both are costs you pay on every trade, on top of commissions.

    How much do ETF trading costs matter?

    Enough to change a system’s outcome. A 3% annual cost drag compounds over years and can turn a marginal strategy negative. Low-cost, low-turnover systems have a real advantage.

    How can I lower trading costs?

    Use liquid ETFs with tight spreads, trade less often, and choose a broker with low or zero commissions. Avoid trading in the first minutes of the open, when spreads are often wider.

    Disclaimer: Educational tool only, not financial advice. It performs arithmetic on your inputs; it does not recommend any trade, position, or strategy. Full disclaimer and affiliate disclosure.

  • ETF Portfolio Rebalance Calculator: Get Back to Target Weights

    Rebalancing is how you return a drifted portfolio to its target weights. After a trend or momentum move, some positions grow and others shrink. This calculator tells you the exact dollar amount to buy or sell in each to get back on target. Enter your positions below.

    Your positions
    ETF / holdingCurrent $Target %
    Total portfolio
    $0
    Target % should sum to 100. “Buy” means add that dollar amount; “sell” means trim that amount back to target.

    How rebalancing fits a trend system

    Most trend systems rebalance on a schedule, usually monthly. The weights drift between reviews as winners grow and losers shrink. Rebalancing forces you to trim winners and add to laggards, which is uncomfortable but is exactly what keeps the portfolio's risk at the level you chose. Use the target weights you wrote down when you designed the system, and the review becomes mechanical.

    FAQ

    How often should I rebalance an ETF portfolio?

    Monthly is the common default for trend systems. Weekly rebalancing trades more and raises costs; quarterly reacts more slowly. The right cadence is the one you can follow mechanically.

    Why do target weights drift?

    Weights drift because positions grow at different rates. A winning ETF becomes a larger share of the portfolio, and a losing one becomes smaller. Rebalancing returns them to the proportions you originally chose.

    Do target weights need to add up to 100%?

    Yes. If your target weights do not sum to 100%, the portfolio is not fully allocated and the calculator will flag it.

    Disclaimer: Educational tool only, not financial advice. It performs arithmetic on your inputs; it does not recommend any trade, position, or strategy. Full disclaimer and affiliate disclosure.

  • ETF Drawdown Calculator: Measure and Recover From Losses

    Drawdown is how far your portfolio has fallen from its peak, and it is the single most honest measure of risk in a trend system. More important than the loss itself is what it takes to recover: a 50% drawdown needs a 100% gain just to get back to even. Enter your numbers below.

    From peak to now
    Drawdown
    0%
    Dollar loss$0
    Gain needed to recover0%
    Drawdown = (peak − current) ÷ peak. The recovery number is why drawdowns hurt: a 50% loss needs a 100% gain just to break even.

    Why the recovery number matters

    The recovery math is asymmetric, and that is the point. Losing 20% needs a 25% gain to recover. Losing 50% needs a 100% gain. This is why risk control and position sizing come before everything else: keeping drawdowns small keeps recovery achievable. A trend system that steps aside in downtrends is, at its core, a drawdown-control machine.

    FAQ

    What is a drawdown in trading?

    A drawdown is the decline from a portfolio’s peak value to a later low, usually expressed as a percentage. It measures the worst loss an investor would have experienced over that period.

    How much gain do I need to recover from a drawdown?

    The gain needed is drawdown% divided by (100 minus drawdown%). A 10% drawdown needs an 11.1% gain, a 20% drawdown needs 25%, and a 50% drawdown needs 100%.

    Why does drawdown matter in trend following?

    Trend following aims to cut losses in downtrends, which keeps drawdowns shallower. A shallow drawdown is recoverable; a deep one can take years of compounding gains to repair.

    Disclaimer: Educational tool only, not financial advice. It performs arithmetic on your inputs; it does not recommend any trade, position, or strategy. Full disclaimer and affiliate disclosure.

  • ETF Position Size Calculator: Size Your Trades by Risk

    Position sizing is how much of your account you put into a single trade, chosen so that a stopped-out loss costs you a fixed, survivable amount. It is the risk layer of any ETF trend trading system, and it matters more than the entry signal: a great signal with terrible sizing still blows up an account.

    The most common method is risk-based sizing. You decide the percentage of your account you are willing to lose if your stop is hit, then buy just enough shares so that the loss equals that amount. Enter your numbers below and the tool does the rest.

    Your trade
    Position size
    0 shares
    Risk per share$0.00
    Position value$0
    Dollar at risk$0
    % of account0%
    Shares = (account × risk %) ÷ (entry − stop). Round down to whole units if your broker does not allow fractional shares. This is a tool, not a recommendation.

    How the calculation works

    The formula is simple: shares = (account size × risk %) ÷ (entry − stop) for a long position.

    Example: a $10,000 account, risking 1% ($100), buying an ETF at $100 with a stop at $95. Risk per share is $5, so you buy 20 shares. If the stop is hit, you lose 20 × $5 = $100, exactly 1% of the account.

    Why this is the number that keeps you in the game

    Trend systems lose small and win big. A losing streak is normal and expected. If each loss is capped at 1% of your account, ten straight losses cost you about 10% and you survive to catch the next trend. If you size every trade to the maximum, the same streak ends the account. Sizing is the difference between a losing streak being an inconvenience and being a catastrophe.

    Use it with a stop rule

    Risk-based sizing only works if you actually have a stop. Many trend traders use a rule like the 7% to 8% stop: sell if a position falls that far below your entry. Pair a defined stop with the sizing above and your downside is capped before you ever place the order. See the risks guide for the other things that can go wrong.

    FAQ

    How do I calculate position size for a trade?

    Divide your dollar risk by the risk per share. Dollar risk is your account size multiplied by the risk percentage you are willing to lose. Risk per share is the entry price minus the stop-loss price for a long position. The result is the number of shares to buy.

    What risk percentage should I use?

    Many traders risk 1% or less of their account on a single trade, and 2% is generally considered aggressive. The right number is the loss you can take repeatedly without abandoning your system, so start small.

    Why does position sizing matter in trend trading?

    Trend systems win by cutting losses small and letting winners run. Correct sizing keeps a normal losing streak survivable, while over-sizing turns that same streak into account damage.

    Can I buy fractional ETF shares?

    Many brokers now allow fractional shares, but some exchanges still settle in whole units. Round down to whole units if your broker does not support fractions.

    Disclaimer: Educational tool only, not financial advice. It performs arithmetic on your inputs; it does not recommend any trade, position, or strategy. Full disclaimer and affiliate disclosure.